NOAA: Tropical Depression 25 Path, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Friday, October 2, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Depression Twenty-five (formerly Invest 91L) over the western Caribbean.

If Tropical Depression 25 becomes a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Greek Alphabet Names List is Gamma.

Tropical Depression Twenty-five Projected Path

Tropical Depression Twenty-five is located about 220 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, and is moving to the northwest at 9 mph (15 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that a gradual turn toward the north-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of
days.

On the official NHC forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone should be near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday.

Tropical Depression Twenty-five Computer Models

Tropical Depression 25 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Tropical Depression 25 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in general agreement that Tropical Depression 25 will move in a north-northwesterly direction across the Bay of Campeche and make landfall somewhere on the Yucatan Peninsula.

The official NHC forecast (red circle) is near or a little north of the corrected and simple model consensus predictions.

Tropical Depression Twenty-five Category Strength

Tropical Depression 25 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time
Tropical Depression 25 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Tropical Depression Twenty-five has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h), with higher gusts.

Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become Tropical Storm Gamma by Saturday morning.

Tropical Depression 25 Watches and Warnings

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, and west of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

September 10 was the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season where tropical cyclone activity significantly increases. But hurricane season still remains at an increased level of activity through the first half of October, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical data.

October Hurricanes Atlantic Hurricane Season Historical

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.