NOAA: Tropical Storm Epsilon Track, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued a Public Advisory at 8 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday, October 20, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Epsilon (formerly Invest 94L and Tropical Depression 27) that is forecast to strengthen into Hurricane Epsilon.

Tropical Storm Epsilon Projected Path

Tropical Storm Epsilon is located 580 miles east-southeast of Bermuda and is moving to the north-northwest at 13 mph (20 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that this general motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a slightly slower west-northwestward or northwestward motion on Wednesday and Thursday.

On the official NHC forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to move closer to Bermuda on Thursday and make its closest approach to the island on Thursday night.

Tropical Storm Epsilon Computer Models

Tropical Storm Epsilon Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Tropical Storm Epsilon Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in general agreement that Tropical Storm Epsilon will slowly move in a west-northwesterly then northwesterly direction.

The tightly-clustered guidance envelope has shifted slightly westward and is faster with the storm motion through about 72 hours, and these trends are reflected in the official NHC track forecast.

Tropical Storm Epsilon Category Strength

Tropical Storm Epsilon NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time
Tropical Storm Epsilon NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Tropical Storm Epsilon has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km) primarily to the north of the center of the tropical cyclone.

Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Epsilon is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or early Wednesday.