NOAA: Tropical Depression 28 Path, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 8 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Saturday, October 24, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Depression Twenty-eight (formerly Invest 95L) over the western Caribbean.

Tropical Depression Twenty-eight Projected Path

Tropical Depression Twenty-eight is located about 270 miles east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, and is moving to the north-northwest at 2 mph (4 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that this motion is expected to continue through early Sunday.

The system should gradually turn toward the west-northwest with a faster forward speed by Monday.

On the official NHC forecast track, the center of the depression is anticipated to remain south of Cuba tomorrow and approach the Yucatan Channel or Yucatan Peninsula late Monday before emerging into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Tropical Depression Twenty-eight Computer Models

Tropical Depression 28 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Tropical Depression 28 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in general agreement that Tropical Depression 28 will move generally in a northwesterly direction and pass near the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.

The official NHC forecast (red circle) leans a little more on the global models than the regional hurricane models and is just west of the model consensus.

Tropical Depression Twenty-eight Category Strength

Tropical Depression 28 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time
Tropical Depression 28 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Tropical Depression Twenty-eight has maximum sustained winds of 30 mph (45 km/h), with higher gusts.

Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday and could become a hurricane over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

If Tropical Depression 28 becomes a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Greek Alphabet Names List is Zeta.

Tropical Depression 28 Watches and Warnings

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Pinar del Rio, Cuba.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

September 10 was the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season where tropical cyclone activity significantly increases. But hurricane season still remains at an increased level of activity through the first half of October, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical data.

October Hurricanes Atlantic Hurricane Season Historical

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.