Tropical Depression 26 Track, Spaghetti Models

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Depression 26 Projected Path Louisiana

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 5 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Monday, October 5, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Depression Twenty-six (formerly Invest 92L and Potential Tropical Cyclone 26) that is forecast to become a hurricane and make landfall on or near Louisiana.

If T.D. 26 becomes a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Greek Alphabet Names List is Delta.

Tropical Depression Twenty-six Projected Path

Tropical Depression Twenty-six is located 255 miles southeast of Grand Cayman and is moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph (15 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that this general motion should continue for the next day or so.

A faster northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.

On the official National Hurricane Center forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move away from Jamaica through this morning, move near or over the Cayman Islands later tonight, and approach the Isle of Youth and western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening.

The system is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

Tropical Depression Twenty-six Computer Models

Tropical Depression 26 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Tropical Depression 26 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

The GFS American model (purple square), European model (orange triangle), and official NHC track forecast (red circle) are in strong agreement that the tropical cyclone will move in a northwesterly direction across the Caribbean, travel near or over the western tip of Cuba, enter the Gulf of Mexico, then track towards Louisiana.

The new official NHC forecast track is a little to the left of the previous track through 72 hours, mainly to account for the more westward initial position, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed model guidance envelope.

Tropical Depression Twenty-six Category Strength

Tropical Depression 26 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time
Tropical Depression 26 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Tropical Depression Twenty-six has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

Strengthening is expected during the next few days and the system is forecast to be a tropical storm when it nears the Cayman Islands later today, and become a hurricane when it moves near or over western Cuba on Tuesday.

Tropical Depression Twenty-six Watches And Warnings

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa; and Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Cuban province of La Habana.