NOAA: Tropical Storm Delta Path, Spaghetti Models

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 5 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Monday, October 5, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Delta (formerly Invest 92L, Potential Tropical Cyclone 26, and Tropical Depression 26) that is forecast to strengthen into a Major Category 3 hurricane before making landfall on or near Louisiana as a Category 2 hurricane.

Tropical Storm Delta Projected Path

Tropical Storm Delta is located 245 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman and is moving to the west at 8 mph (13 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that a a turn toward the west-northwest should occur this evening.

A faster northwestward motion is expected Tuesday through Wednesday night.

On the official National Hurricane Center forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands early Tuesday, and approach the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula and the Yucatan Channel Tuesday afternoon or evening.

Delta is forecast to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and be over the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Tropical Storm Delta Computer Models

Tropical Storm Delta Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Tropical Storm Delta Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

The GFS American model (purple square), European model (orange triangle), and official NHC track forecast (red circle) are in strong agreement that the tropical cyclone will move in a northwesterly direction across the Caribbean, travel between the western tip of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula and enter the Gulf of Mexico, then track towards Louisiana.

Although the track forecast has not changed much during the latter portion of the period, there is more cross-track spread in the model guidance than before, which has increased the uncertainty regarding potential landfall and the timing of Delta’s approach to the northern Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Delta Category Strength

Tropical Storm Delta NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time
Tropical Storm Delta NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Tropical Storm Delta has maximum sustained winds of 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts.

Additional rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Delta is expected to be a major hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Delta Watches And Warnings

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban province of Artemisa and Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Cuban province of La Habana.