NOAA: Hurricane Eta Path, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 1 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on Wednesday, November 4, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Eta (formerly Invest 96L and Tropical Depression 29) over Nicaragua.

This is the first time an Atlantic Hurricane Season has reached the name Eta in the Greek Alphabet.

Eta is the twenty-eighth named storm of the 2020 season which ties the record for the number of named storms set in 2005.

Tropical Storm Eta Projected Path

Tropical Storm Eta is located about 125 miles north-northeast of Managua, Nicaragua, and is moving to the west at 7 mph (11 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that a west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected this afternoon through Thursday morning.

A turn toward the north, and then northeast is forecast Thursday night and Friday.

On the official NHC forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move over northern Nicaragua through early this afternoon, and then move across Honduras later this afternoon through Thursday morning.

The system is forecast to emerge over the Gulf of Honduras or the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and Friday.

Tropical Storm Eta Computer Models

Tropical Storm Eta Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Tropical Storm Eta Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

The ECMWF European Model and the GFS American model both forecast that Eta will re-emerge over the Caribbean Sea and track towards Cuba.

The NHC track forecasts that Eta will pass over Cuban and near the Florida Keys as a tropical storm.

However, there remains a large “cone of uncertainty” as to whether or not Eta will make landfall on the Florida mainland.

Tropical Storm Eta Category Strength

Tropical Storm Eta NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time
Tropical Storm Eta NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Tropical Storm Eta has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 km/h), with higher gusts.

Continued weakening will occur while Eta moves over land during the next day or two, and Eta should become a tropical depression tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (80 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

September 10 was the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season where tropical cyclone activity significantly increases. But hurricane season still remains at an increased level of activity through October, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical data.

October Hurricanes Atlantic Hurricane Season Historical

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.