NOAA: Tropical Depression Eta Path Near Florida, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 7 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on Saturday, November 7, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Depression Eta (formerly Invest 96L and Hurricane Eta) over the Caribbean.

This is the first time an Atlantic Hurricane Season has reached the name Eta in the Greek Alphabet.

Eta is the twenty-eighth named storm of the 2020 season which ties the record for the number of named storms set in 2005.

Tropical Depression Eta Projected Path

Tropical Depression Eta is located about 190 miles west-southwest of Gand Cayman and is moving to the east-northeast at 13 mph (21 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that an east-northeast to northeast motion at a faster forward speed is expected through early Sunday.

A turn toward the north and northwest are expected by Sunday afternoon.

On the official NHC forecast track, the center of Eta will approach the Cayman Islands later today, be near central Cuba tonight and Sunday, and near the Florida Keys or South Florida Sunday night and Monday.

Tropical Depression Eta Computer Models

Tropical Depression Eta Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Tropical Depression Eta Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

The ECMWF European Model (orange square) and the GFS American model (purple square) both forecast that Eta will track towards Cuba, but the GFS forecasts a more easterly track towards the Florida Keys while the ECMWF track is just to the west of Key West over the open Gulf of Mexico.

The new NHC track forecast (red circle) lies between the GFS and ECMWF models and is similar to the previous one.

Tropical Depression Eta Category Strength

Tropical Depression Eta NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time
Tropical Depression Eta NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Tropical Depression Eta has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h), with higher gusts.

Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again later today, with further strengthening likely through Sunday.

Tropical Depression Eta Watches and Warnings

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands, the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas; and the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth; Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach, Lake Okeechobee, the Florida Keys, and Florida Bay.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

September 10 was the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season where tropical cyclone activity significantly increases. But hurricane season still remains at an increased level of activity through the first half of November, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical data.

October Hurricanes Atlantic Hurricane Season Historical

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.