MIAMI, Florida — NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has issued a Tropical Weather Outlook on Sunday, June 5, 2016 which predicts a high (90%) chance of an area of low pressure becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours that is predicted to impact Florida on Monday.
Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a low pressure area located near the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and western Cuba. Surface data show that pressures are falling in the area, and that winds to near tropical storm force are occurring over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
NHC forecasters say that environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for additional development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm by tonight or on Monday while it moves north-northeastward toward the Florida Peninsula. If a tropical storm does form, the next name on the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Names list is Tropical Storm Colin.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula during the next few days. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm conditions could occur along a portion of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula as early as Monday afternoon.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday.
Invest 93-L Spaghetti Models
Spaghetti models are in general agreement that this system, named Invest 93-L, will move over or near the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico tonight. The spaghetti plots remain closely together for the remainder of the week with Invest 93-L making landfall somewhere between the southernmost portion of the Florida panhandle and north of Tampa, Florida.