MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday, July 28, 2020, due to the presence of Invest 92L 2020 that will likely form into a tropical cyclone over the Atlantic Ocean.
Invest 92L is a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic located about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands (marked with a red “X”).
Although recent satellite imagery suggests that the system does not yet have a well-defined center, data from NOAA buoy 41040 indicate that the system is producing winds near tropical-storm-force.
A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.
NHC forecasters say that environmental conditions are expected to become favorable for additional development during the next couple of days and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form during that time frame.
Invest 92L is forecast to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
If Invest 92L becomes a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Names List is Isaias.
Invest 92L has a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and an 80% chance within the next 48 hours.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rain is likely across portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning later today and continuing through Wednesday, especially in the Leeward Islands.
These conditions will spread westward to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night and Thursday.
Spaghetti models have shifted west overnight are in general agreement that Invest 92L will track in a west-northwesterly direction near or over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, The Bahamas, and Florida.
The European model (orange triangle) is the outlier computer model that brings Invest 92L further west into the Gulf of Mexico.
The UK model (blue square) forecasts that Invest 92L will pass just north of the Dominican Republic and over the southern Bahamas.
NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.