NOAA: Hurricane Paulette Track, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued Public Advisory at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, September 13, 2020, due to the presence of Hurricane Paulette (formerly Invest 92L and Tropical Depression 17) over the Atlantic Ocean.

Paulette is the earliest 16th named storm of any Atlantic Hurricane season by 10 days. The previous record was Philippe, which formed on September 17, 2005.

Hurricane Paulette Projected Path

Hurricane Paulette is located about 280 miles southeast of Bermuda and is moving to the west-northwest at 14 mph (22 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that a northwest or west-northwest motion is expected through tonight.

A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday.

On the official NHC forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning.

Hurricane Paulette Computer Models

Spaghetti models are in strong agreement of a generally west-northwestward motion over the next 24 hours as the tropical cyclone is steered by a subtropical ridge to its north and northeast.

On Monday, Paulette is expected to turn to the north then northeast at about the time of closest approach to Bermuda.

The new NHC forecast track lies close to the various consensus models.

Hurricane Paulette Category Strength

Hurricane Paulette has maximum sustained winds near 80 mph (130 km/h), with higher gusts.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center of the cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km).

Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous Category 2 or 3  hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late tonight and early Monday.

Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through Tuesday.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.

Currently, a total of 7 tropical cyclones may form within the next 5 days.